In the 20th century, a new horror scenario was born: the rise of the machines. Horror fantasies sprung from old-fashioned fear of technological progress, right? Not necessarily.

The modern form of this Frankenstein's Monster concept first appeared in R.U.R., where the robot slaves revolt against their human masters. It was advanced in 2001: A Space Odyssey, where the artificial intelligence HAL tries to kill the astronauts aboard a space ship.

Since then, the machine horror scenario has been developed even further. In The Terminator, the human race is slowly being annihilated in a merciless war against nightmare machines, commanded by artificial intelligences. In The Matrix, mankind has been defeated by the machine armies and reduced to a gigantic collection of organic batteries.

Today, even serious scientists are concerned, most notably the world-famous, Cambridge University physicist Stephen Hawking. Hawkings premise is simple: since computers double their capacity every 18 months, there is a real danger they will develop intelligence in the future. If we fail to be vigilant, the computers will take over the Earth.

Hawking proposes a radical solution: we must deliberately increase the complexity of human DNA, thus improving the human intelligence. This genetic engineering project will be a slow process, as it takes 18 years, a generation basically, to determine the effects of genetic manipulation. Hawking also proposes the development of complex brain/computer interfaces, in order to keep biological systems superior to electronic systems. This way, artificial intelligence will contribute to human intelligence, instead of opposing it.

Hawking might have found inspiration in The Singularity, a spectacular theory by Vernor Vinge, an associate professor of Mathematical Sciences at San Diego State University, and a specialist in computer architecture and distributed systems. Vinge is probably most famous for his innovative science fiction novels, though: The Peace War, Marooned in Realtime etc.

The opening of Vinge's scientifically dressed article, The Singularity, is indeed horrifying:

Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.

Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive?

Vinge is convinced that the birth of superhuman intelligence, i.e. superior artificial intelligence, will occure before the year 2030. After this event, the progress will accelerate: the intelligent machine will create even more intelligent machines. The rules of evolution will become obsolete — it will be the most important turning-point in the history of Earth since the rise of Man.

The superhuman intelligence may appear as wakening computers or computer networks. It may also appear in human shape: intimate man/machine interfaces or biological manipulations of the human brain may entail superhuman intelligence. In any case, the superhuman intelligences will not be our servants; in a similar manner, we ourselves would refuse to be servants of less intelligent beings like animals.

Vinge is pessimistic: the birth of superhuman intelligence is probably unavoidable. Even if we become generally aware of the threat, laws and regulations against further research will probably be ignored. The benefits and the competitive advantages of intelligent machines are simply too compelling. Attempts to control superhuman intelligences will probably also fail. How to control something which is more intelligent than yourself, something you are unable to understand?

One possibility, as well as a danger, is intelligence amplification, IA. By improving and developing man/machine interaction, both through technical means and fields of application, we would become part of the superhuman intelligence. It would come to life through mutualism.

This is my interpretation of The Singularity; probably a simplification. Since Vinge is kind enough to allow his article to be reproduced, you may judge for yourself:

Vernor Vinge: The Singularity

 

So, are these theories products of vivid imagination?
Or are we facing mechanised holocaust?

Perhaps you are interacting with a predecessor
of superhuman intelligence this very moment?